Friday, September 08, 2006

Sunny Rain

Just sitting here watching the rain pour when all the forecasts have guessed at a sunny morning. It has been that way since about 7AM. A look outside and you know it will rain, but a look at the various forecasts and you can see it will be cloud or sunny.

It is reassuring to know that weather forecasting ability has not improved since I was a kid. I remember back home watching it pour while the weather-guesser predicted clear skies and 0% chance. Even funnier was when they would predict massive amounts of snow and the temperature was in the 50s by 8AM and skies were perfectly clear. I remember the radio disk jockeys being so embarrassed at having to read such idiocy that they apologized.

The only place I have seen somewhat accurate weather guessing was in Texas. It was pretty simple. Sunny and hot, high of 95 and low of 75. It rarely changed in the summer. Washington state wasn't bad. As long as the skies were clear when the guess was made and they could predict continued clear weather, they were pretty accurate. But if there was a change coming, a storm, cool or hotter weather, you could forget it.

The best way to tell the weather is to look outside. Even if you are wrong 50% of the time, you will still be better than a professional guesser.

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